2011年葡萄牙立法選舉
葡萄牙在2011年6月5日舉行大選，選出全共和國議會230席議員。[5] 佩德羅·帕索斯·科埃略（Pedro Passos Coelho）領導的中間偏右社會民主黨 擊敗時任總理若瑟·蘇格拉底領導的社會黨。[6] 在投票率創下歷史新低的情況下，中間偏右政黨囊括近130席席次，達總席次的56%，得票率僅達50%。而人民党持續2009年以來的態勢，創下1983年以來的最佳成績，而社民黨超越民調結果，贏得與2002年若泽·曼努埃尔·巴罗佐相同的席次。在全國二十個選區中，佩德羅·帕索斯·科埃略拿下里斯本、波爾圖、法魯、亞速群島等十七個選區。
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葡萄牙議會230席 獲得絕對多數需116席 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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社會黨在本次選舉遭受嚴重挫敗，不僅失去11個選區，且是1991年以來首度得票率低於30%。蘇格拉底因而在選舉日當晚宣布辭去總書記。社會黨也失去他所在的布朗庫堡選區。極左派政黨左翼集團大敗，失去半數議會席次。整體而言，葡萄牙左派支持率落後右派政黨十個百分點，是1991年代社民黨阿尼巴爾·卡瓦科·席爾瓦拿下絕對多數以來的最大差距。右派政黨社民黨及人民黨取得過半席次，可以組建聯合政府。連同席爾瓦總統，自1974年康乃馨革命以來，37年來總統和總理同屬右翼。
投票率是葡萄牙史上新低紀錄，僅僅只有58%。
背景
選舉制度
國外影響
民調
| 日期 | 民調機構 | 社會黨 | 社會民主黨 | 人民黨 | 左翼集团 | 联合民主联盟 | 其他/未決定 | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/5 | 選舉結果 | 28.1% 74席 |
38.7% 108席 |
11.7% 24席 |
5.2% 8席 |
7.9% 16席 |
8.5% 0席 |
10.7% |
| 6/5 | Exit Poll - RTP1 Universidade Católica页面存档备份，存于 |
26.0% – 30.0% 67 – 77席 |
37.0% – 42.0% 104 – 114席 |
11.0% – 14.0% 22 – 28席 |
5.0% – 7.0% 8 – 11席 |
7.0% – 9.0% 14 – 18席 |
5.0% – 8.0% 0 – 1席 |
11.0% 12.0% |
| 6/5 | Exit Poll - SIC Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 |
25.5% – 29.7% 69 – 77席 |
38.3% – 42.5% 102 – 109席 |
11.1% – 13.9% 22 – 25席 |
4.5% – 6.7% 7 – 10席 |
6.8% – 9.0% 15 – 16席 |
12.8% | |
| 6/5 | Exit Poll - TVI INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 |
24.4% – 28.8% 64 – 78席 |
37.7% – 42.5% 107 – 121席 |
10.1% – 13.7% 12 – 28席 |
3.8% – 7.0% 4 – 12席 |
6.2% – 9.4% 11 – 20席 |
6.6% – 9.8% 0 – 1席 |
13.3% 13.7% |
| 6/2 | Eurosondagem | 31.0% | 35.5% | 13.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| 5/31–6/2 | Aximage | 29.2% | 37.4% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% |
| 6/1 | Eurosondagem | 31.1% | 35.9% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| 5/29–6/1 | Aximage | 30.1% | 36.3% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% |
| 5/28–6/1 | INTERCAMPUS | 31.1% | 36.5% | 11.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% |
| 5/31 | Eurosondagem | 31.3% | 35.4% | 13.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% |
| 5/28–31 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 30.1% | 38.5% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| 5/30 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 32.2% | 35.5% | 12.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% |
| 25/8–29 | Universidade Católica页面存档备份，存于 | 31.0% | 36.0% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 5/29 | Eurosondagem | 32.1% | 34.7% | 12.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 2.6% |
| 5/25–29 | INTERCAMPUS | 32.3% | 37.0% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| 5/27 | Eurosondagem | 32.4% | 33.7% | 13.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 1.3% |
| 5/26 | Eurosondagem | 32.3% | 33.9% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 1.6% |
| 5/21–26 | INTERCAMPUS | 34.1% | 35.8% | 11.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 5/25 | Eurosondagem | 32.5% | 33.6% | 12.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 1.1% |
| 5/24 | Eurosondagem | 32.0% | 33.7% | 13.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 1.7% |
| 5/23 | Eurosondagem | 32.6% | 33.1% | 13.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 0.5% |
| 5/21–22 | Universidade Católica页面存档备份，存于 | 36.0% | 36.0% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 5/18–22 | INTERCAMPUS | 33.2% | 39.6% | 12.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 6.4% |
| 5/14–18 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 29.5% | 31.1% | 12.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 14.0% | 1.6% |
| 5/11–15 | INTERCAMPUS | 35.4% | 36.1% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 5/7–12 | INTERCAMPUS | 36.8% | 33.9% | 13.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% |
| 5/9–10 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 33.4% | 39.7% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% |
| 5/4–8 | INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 | 35.1% | 36.2% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| 5/2–5 | INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 | 34.8% | 37.0% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| 4/28–5/3 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 32.5% | 35.8% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% |
| 4/29–5/2 | Aximage | 28.3% | 31.5% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 3.2% |
| 4/30–5/1 | Universidade Católica页面存档备份，存于 | 36.0% | 34.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| 4/14–19 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 32.7% | 36.3% | 11.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| 4/15–17 | Marktest | 36.1% | 35.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 0.8% |
| 4/8–10 | INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 | 33.1% | 38.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 5.6% |
| 4/2–3 | Universidade Católica页面存档备份，存于 | 33.0% | 39.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| 3/28–30 | Aximage | 28.4% | 34.8% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 6.4% |
| 3/27–30 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 30.4% | 37.3% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% |
| 3/24–26 | INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 | 32.8% | 42.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 1.3% | 9.4% |
| 3/23：若瑟·蘇格拉底因不信任動議通過而下台，確定舉行提前選舉[7] | ||||||||
| 3/18–23 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 24.5% | 46.7% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 22.2% |
| 3/3–7 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 27.9% | 37.9% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 10.0% |
| 2/23–28 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 30.6% | 36.9% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| 2/17–23 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 29.1% | 47.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 18.7% |
| 2/3–8 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 29.3% | 36.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% |
| 2/1–3 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 27.8% | 37.8% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% |
| 1/19–21 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 30.3% | 37.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% |
| 1/16–19 | INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 | 30.8% | 36.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 12.2% | 6.0% |
| 1/5–11 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 29.6% | 37.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% |
| 1/3–6 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 25.4% | 38.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 12.9% |
| 2011 | ||||||||
| 12/10–15 | INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 | 30.1% | 41.6% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 1.1% | 11.5% |
| 12/5–7 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 27.2% | 39.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 12.6% |
| 12/2–7 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 30.3% | 36.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% |
| 11/16–19 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 26.9% | 44.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 17.4% |
| 11/12–17 | INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 | 30.5% | 39.2% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 8.7% |
| 11/4–9 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 30.0% | 36.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% |
| 10/26–29 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 26.5% | 35.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.7% |
| 10/23–25 | Universidade Católica页面存档备份，存于 | 26.0% | 40.0% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 14.0% |
| 10/19–24 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 25.1% | 42.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 16.9% |
| 10/6–12 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 35.3% | 35.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 10/4–6 | INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 | 32.0% | 35.2% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% |
| 10/1–4 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 31.7% | 30.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 1.1% |
| 9/14–17 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 35.7% | 38.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 2.3% |
| 9/6–9 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 33.8% | 32.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 1.7% |
| 9/1–7 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 36.0% | 35.8% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 0.2% |
| 7/28–8/2 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 35.0% | 36.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.0% |
| 7/20–26 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 33.3% | 37.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| 7/16–19 | INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 | 34.4% | 39.2% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 2.0% | 4.8% |
| 7/8–11 | Euroexpansão页面存档备份，存于 | 31.7% | 41.0% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 9.3% |
| 7/1–6 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 33.7% | 36.2% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| 7/1–4 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 30.6% | 34.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 4.3% |
| 6/19–21 | Universidade Católica页面存档备份，存于 | 34.0% | 37.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% |
| 6/15–20 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 24.1% | 47.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 23.6% |
| 6/2–8 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 34.8% | 34.9% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 0.1% |
| 6/1–7 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 30.5% | 31.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 1.1% |
| 5/18–20 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 27.6% | 43.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 16.3% |
| 5/13–18 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 36.2% | 33.0% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% |
| 5/4–7 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 30.2% | 31.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 1.3% |
| 4/27–30 | INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 | 35.8% | 41.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 1.2% | 5.8% |
| 4/20–25 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 34.0% | 39.8% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| 4/8–13 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 36.0% | 28.5% | 13.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% |
| 4/5–8 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 32.2% | 30.4% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 1.8% |
| 3/29：佩德羅·桑塔納·洛佩斯當選社民黨黨魁[8] | ||||||||
| 3/16–21 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 35.6% | 30.8% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% |
| 3/6–9 | Universidade Católica页面存档备份，存于 | 41.0% | 33.0% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 8.0% |
| 3/5–9 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 34.0% | 25.1% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 8.9% |
| 3/4–9 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 36.9% | 26.2% | 14.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 10.7% |
| 2/23–27 | INTERCAMPUS页面存档备份，存于 | 40.4% | 34.4% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 6.0% |
| 2/16–21 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 35.9% | 30.9% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% |
| 2/10–13 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 32.4% | 26.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 6.1% |
| 2/4–9 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 38.1% | 26.9% | 13.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 11.2% |
| 2/2–5 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 33.8% | 24.8% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 9.0% |
| 1/19–23 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 40.5% | 29.2% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 11.3% |
| 1/7–12 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 38.0% | 27.4% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 10.6% |
| 1/6–11 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 33.4% | 26.5% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 6.9% |
| 2010 | ||||||||
| 12/7–10 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 32.5% | 24.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 8.1% |
| 11/25–12/1 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 38.5% | 26.9% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 11.6% |
| 11/17–19 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 41.7% | 25.6% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 16.1% |
| 11/6–8 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 35.2% | 27.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 7.9% |
| 10/29–11/3 | Eurosondagem页面存档备份，存于 | 38.8% | 27.5% | 12.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 11.3% |
| 10/0–24 | Marktest页面存档备份，存于 | 42.9% | 23.7% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 19.2% |
| 10/12–15 | Aximage页面存档备份，存于 | 35.3% | 25.4% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 6.0% | 12.8% | 9.9% |
| 2009/9/27 | 選舉結果 | 36.6% 97席 |
29.1% 81席 |
10.4% 21席 |
9.8% 16席 |
7.9% 15席 |
6.2% 0席 |
7.5% |
結果
反對黨以比民調更大的差距擊敗執政黨。社民黨领袖佩德罗·帕索斯·科埃略成為總理候選人。
| 政黨 | 票數 | % | ± | 議會席次 | 席次%/ 票數% | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2011 | ± | % | ± | ||||||||||
| 社會民主黨 | 2,159,181 | 38.66 | ▲9.6 | 81 | 108 | ▲27 | 46.96 | ▲11.7 | 1.21 | |||||
| 社會黨 | 1,566,347 | 28.05 | ▼8.5 | 97 | 74 | ▼23 | 32.17 | ▼10.0 | 1.15 | |||||
| 人民黨 | 653,888 | 11.71 | ▲1.3 | 21 | 24 | ▲3 | 10.43 | ▲1.3 | 0.89 | |||||
| 联合民主联盟 | 441,147 | 7.90 | ▲0.0 | 15 | 16 | ▲1 | 6.96 | ▲0.4 | 0.88 | |||||
| 左翼集團 | 288,923 | 5.17 | ▼4.6 | 16 | 8 | ▼8 | 3.48 | ▼3.5 | 0.67 | |||||
| 葡萄牙工人共產黨 | 62,610 | 1.12 | ▲0.2 | 0 | 0 | ▬0 | 0.00 | ▬0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 爱护动物和自然党 | 57,995 | 1.04 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 | |||||
| 地球黨 | 22,705 | 0.41 | ▲0.3 | 0 | 0 | ▬0 | 0.00 | ▬0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 期望葡萄牙運動 | 21,942 | 0.39 | ▼0.1 | 0 | 0 | ▬0 | 0.00 | ▬0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 民族更新黨 | 17,548 | 0.31 | ▲0.1 | 0 | 0 | ▬0 | 0.00 | ▬0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 工黨 | 16,895 | 0.30 | ▲0.2 | 0 | 0 | ▬0 | 0.00 | ▬0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 人民君主主義者黨 | 14,687 | 0.26 | ▼0.0 | 0 | 0 | ▬0 | 0.00 | ▬0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 新民主黨 | 11,806 | 0.21 | ▼0.2 | 0 | 0 | ▬0 | 0.00 | ▬0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 葡萄牙親生活黨 | 8,209 | 0.15 | ▬0.0 | 0 | 0 | ▬0 | 0.00 | ▬0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 社會主義團結工人黨 | 4,572 | 0.08 | ▬0.0 | 0 | 0 | ▬0 | 0.00 | ▬0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 大西洋民主黨 | 4,569 | 0.08 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 | |||||
| 人道黨 | 3,588 | 0.06 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 | |||||
| 總有效票 | 5,357,037 | 95.92 | ▼1.0 | 230 | 230 | ▬0 | 100.00 | ▬0.0 | — | |||||
| 空白票 | 148,618 | 2.66 | ▲0.9 | |||||||||||
| 無效票 | 79,399 | 1.42 | ▲0.1 | |||||||||||
| 總和 (投票率 58.03%) | 5,585,054 | 100.00 | ▼1.7 | |||||||||||
| Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições | ||||||||||||||
注釋
- Passos Coelho sucede a Ferreira Leite 页面存档备份，存于, Expresso, 26 March 2010. Retrieved 4 April 2011.
- . [2012-04-08]. （原始内容存档于2012-03-12）.", Público, 29 September 2004. Retrieved 4 April 2011.
- . [2012-04-08]. （原始内容存档于2020-10-31）.
- . [2012-04-08]. （原始内容存档于2020-11-15）.
- Taylor, Simon. . Europeanvoice.com. [2011-05-14]. （原始内容存档于2014-02-01）.
- "Portugal PM quits after losing austerity vote 页面存档备份，存于", Al Jazeera, 23 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
- "José Sócrates demitiu-se 页面存档备份，存于", Sol, 23 March 2011. Retrieved 31 August 2011.
- Sá, Paula; Coelho, Hugo Filipe; Mangas, Francisco; "Passos esmagador obtém garantia de união interna 页面存档备份，存于", Diário de Notícias, 27 March 2010. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
外部連結
參見
- 葡萄牙政治
- 葡萄牙政黨列表
- 葡萄牙選舉
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